In the world of financial services and investment, the term 'black swans' refers to rare and unexpected events that have a direct impact on global sentiment and activity.
The best example of this in 2020 was arguably provided by the coronavirus pandemic, which hit the world's labour market hard and compelled governments to slash their base interest rates and devalue their respective currencies in the process.
In this post, we'll look at other black swans that could affect the global markets in 2021, while asking how seminal each one may be.
Wallstreet vs. Reddit - The Rise of Internet Trading Groups
Last week saw an incredible battle between lucrative hedge funds and fast-evolving Internet trade groups, with the struggling US video games retailer GameStop at the centre of this tug-of-war. After hedge funds started short-selling and betting against the flailing stock, the WallStreetBets forum forged a private band of investors, creating an interim spike in share prices of up to 1,700% in a matter of four weeks.
While this additional value has since been lost (to the tune of around $11 billion), the same Reddit forum members are collaborating to pump their cash into silber, in what's been described as a fresh bid to hurt big banks who they believe are artificially suppressing price points.
As a result, we may well see similar actions taken by influential Internet trade groups online throughout 2021, particularly as concepts such as social media interaction and social trading become increasingly commonplace.
  1. The Rise of Blockchain and Cryptocurrencies
 
While blockchain is now an established technology, we're seeing the third generation of networks emerge as 2021 gets underway. This includes protocols like Cardano and Polkadot, which have been primarily designed to correct the inefficiencies that plague first and second-generation blockchains.
This is triggering a significant increase in the demand for cryptocurrency assets, with Bitcoin having recovered from its decline at the beginning of 2021 to approach the $40,000 barrier once again and tokens such as Ethereum and Litecoin experiencing huge growth.
These assets are all poised to see considerable growth in 2021, particularly with the previous 12 months highlighting how this type of currency is largely impervious to macroeconomic factors and the type of data included in the economic calendar.
  1. Amazon Procures Cyprus
 
Interestingly, Saxo Bank ranked this entry as number one in their annual list of seismic black swans in the global economy, with Amazon having redomiciled its UK headquarters in Cyprus to help negate the risk of regulatory intervention.
Many have suggested that this move amounts to Amazon using its wealth to influence future tax legislation, by effectively 'buying' Cyprus and providing the heavily indebted nation with a huge financial windfall. The numbers are truly staggering, with Cyprus' $24 billion GDP equating to less than a quarter of Amazon's total non-US revenue levels.
As a result of this, Cyprus can potentially reduce its debt-to-GDP ratio of nearly 100% through 2021, while potentially persuading the EU to maintain tax-friendly regulations for Amazon going forward.

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Oliver

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